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Coalescence modeling of intrainfection populations allows estimation of infection parameters in wild populations.

著者 Easterday WR , Ponciano JM , Gomez JP , Van Ert MN , Hadfield T , Bagamian K , Blackburn JK , Stenseth NC , Turner WC
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A.2020 Feb 13 ; ():.
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, the etiological agent of anthrax, is a well-established model organism. For and most other infectious diseases, knowledge regarding transmission and infection parameters in natural systems, in large part, comprises data gathered from closely controlled laboratory experiments. Fatal, natural anthrax infections transmit the bacterium through new host-pathogen contacts at carcass sites, which can occur years after death of the previous host. For the period between contact and death, all of our knowledge is based upon experimental data from domestic livestock and laboratory animals. Here we use a noninvasive method to explore the dynamics of anthrax infections, by evaluating the terminal diversity of in anthrax carcasses. We present an application of population genetics theory, specifically, coalescence modeling, to intrainfection populations of to derive estimates for the duration of the acute phase of the infection and effective population size converted to the number of colony-forming units establishing infection in wild plains zebra (). Founding populations are small, a few colony-forming units, and infections are rapid, lasting roughly between 1 d and 3 d in the wild. Our results closely reflect experimental data, showing that small founding populations progress acutely, killing the host within days. We believe this method is amendable to other bacterial diseases from wild, domestic, and human systems.
PMID: 32054783 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
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